Climate is changing and testing our limits. Energy systems CAN adapt.

​In 2022 Lumen Energy Strategy, LLC launched the WARP to Resilience study to advance California's analytical tools for electricity resource planning by incorporating the impacts of climate change and environmental extremes on electricity supply and demand, and to evaluate the future resilience of electricity service to ratepayers.
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WARP to Resilience is made possible by a research grant awarded by the California Energy Commission (CEC) under the state's Electric Program Investment Charge (EPIC). To learn more about the study's foundation see the CEC's Grant Funding Opportunity GFO-21-302 Research to Support a Climate Resilient Transition to a Clean Electricity System.

Download our Kickoff Presentation for an overview of the study vision, objectives, and expected timeline. Additional study materials are posted here.

​To stay informed, subscribe to our WARP to Resilience mailing list.

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Final  Report

Forthcoming soon in summer 2026.

Technical  Documentation

Climate Projections for Grid Planning
The Lumen team worked with the California Energy Commission (CEC) Staff to translate climate research and data products into specific input assumptions for use in grid planning models.

De-trended Climate Projections for Electricity Demand Forecasting: The New Normals and Extremes
July 10, 2025

Resilience Evaluation Framework
The Lumen team developed and implemented a resilience evaluation framework and metrics applicable to grid planning. The framework is built through broad industry research and close collaboration with the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) Resiliency and Microgrids team and their public participants.
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Resilience Framework Memo
​April 25, 2025

Data Lake
For a limited time, climate-informed weather variants, the study's intermediate outputs, and the final resilience evaluation model results are available for download.
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​To request access, please fill out this form. Access to the data lake is prioritized for parties actively engaged in California's public electricity grid planning proceedings.

Public  Engagement

CPUC Workshop Series on Resilience
In a series of workshops hosted by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), the Lumen team led discussions to explore resiliency definitions, metrics, and methodologies, with a focus on Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) use case, and presented their research findings to CPUC Commissioner Shiroma, CPUC Staff, and CPUC Resiliency and Microgrids public participants.

Climate Resilience in Integrated Resource Planning: Resilience Definitions
May 10, 2023

Climate Resilience in Integrated Resource Planning: Resilience Metrics
September 5, 2023

Improving Resilience through Integrated Resource Planning
November 8, 2023

CEC IEPR Workshops
In several workshops hosted by the California Energy Commission (CEC), the Lumen team discussed their work on integration of climate projections into the CEC's energy demand forecast, and presented their research and analytical findings to CEC Commissioners, CEC Staff, and CEC Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) public participants.

Projected Climate Trends and Patterns of Interest to California’s Energy System
August 18, 2023

Development of Future Weather Variants for Demand Forecast
August 18, 2023

Key Findings in Climate Data Analyses for Demand Forecast Integration
December 19, 2023

Development of Future Weather Variants for Demand Forecast
July 30, 2024

CEC NEI Informational Proceeding
Consideration of Non-Energy Impacts (NEIs)—such as impacts on resilience, land use,  public health and air quality, water supply and quality, and economics—is integral to California’s implementation of State Senate Bill 100 (The 100 Percent Clean Energy Act of 2018). The Lumen team has engaged with the California Energy Commission (CEC) and its public participants to help chart a path towards data-driven and community-informed quantification of resilience impacts and their relationship to other NEIs.

​Incorporating Resilience in Grid Planning and Decision-Making: Key Observations
March 13, 2025

CEC C-DAWG Forum
The Lumen team has engaged with the California Energy Commission (CEC) Climate Data and Analysis Working Group (C-DAWG) to contribute study findings that help address issues at the nexus of climate change and California’s energy system.

Opportunities for Downscaled Climate Projections to Support Planning to the Bulk Grid Reliability Standard & Role of Weather Extremes
November 5, 2024

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​© 2020–2026 Lumen Energy Strategy, LLC.

Image notes and credits, left to right: 2017 flooding in Sacramento, California (Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency​); September 6, 2020 temperatures across California (NASA/Joshua Stevens); Lake Oroville in 2020 (AP/Ethan Swope); 2021 Caldor fire (AP/Ethan Swope); Smoke from 2020 August Complex fire (CNN/Harmeet Kaur); Homes in Paradise, California prior to the 2018 Camp Fire (ABC/Tilley and Leslie/Google Earth; San Francisco buildings (Unsplash/Pandya); Olivenhain Reservoir, a component of the Lake Hodges Pumped Storage Facilities (San Diego County Water Authority); Topaz Solar Farm in San Luis Obispo, California (Google Maps); Dallas Energy Storage 1–3/Moss 300 facility (InsideEVs.com).